NSW Common Planning Assumptions

NSW Common Planning Assumptions are the agreed information assets (data sets, parametres and assumptions, models and analytical tools) used by NSW Government and external stakeholders, to prepare proposals, business plans and strategies that rely on projections.

They provide a consistent evidence base for NSW Government agencies to use in planning for key services and infrastructure in the state, from schools and hospitals to roads and transport.

The use of common planning assumptions supports the Premier’s Priority for world class public service by giving NSW Government agencies easier access to the latest datasets and assumptions for planning well-targeted services and infrastructure in NSW.

Assumptions and datasets

NSW Government agencies develop and update information assets that are used as common planning assumptions. The common planning assumptions detailed below were approved by CPAG in April 2021.

Common planning assumption datasets, reports and other tools, are provided below, broken into the following categories:

The Common Planning Assumptions are used in the development of new NSW government policies, strategies and business cases. They have been used to prepare key Government plans, including:

• Future Transport Strategy
• State Infrastructure Strategy 2018 - 2038
• Greater Sydney Region Plan and District Plans.

The planning horizon for these data sets and projections is typically between 20 years (business cases for investment above $10 million) and 40 years (proposals for major investments and strategies).

Fiscal and economic data

• 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report

Population and housing projection

• Population projections – Projections of population, mortality, migration, fertility and household formation

• Greater Sydney housing supply forecast, November 2020 – Provides information on where, when, and how many new homes are likely to be built within the city

Climate and natural resources

• NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project – NARCliM is NSW Government’s trusted source for regional climate projections data and associated information. NARCliM2.0, released in 2024, replaces previous generations as the CPAG-endorsed climate projections. For further reading:
  • Using NARCliM data
  • NARCliM case studies
  • NARCliM2.0 general factsheet
  • NARCliM2.0 technical details

• Climate change projections interactive map – Explore annual and seasonal climate change information for a range of variables relevant to NSW, 10 NSW regions & the ACT. Select from two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for seven time periods 2020 to 2090. Download data and maps for more information.
  • Interactive map frequently asked questions

• NARCliM 2.0 Climate change snapshots – Read summary information and infographics for a deeper understanding climate change in NSW, 10 NSW regions & the ACT, and the impacts on each unique region.

• NSW Climate Data Portal – Registered users can browse the collection of NARCliM climate projections data and select and download by location, date range and a range of formats.

• Relevant NARCliM 1.0 Products
  • Technical report on extreme rainfall
  • Technical report on bush fire risk
  • Heatwaves snapshot
  • Heatwaves technical report

• Air quality – learn how NSW monitors air quality and air emissions inventories
  • NSW air quality monitoring data
  • NSW air quality monitoring reports
  • NSW air emissions inventory results
  • Air emissions in my community web-tool
  • National Pollutant Inventory results

• The Biodiversity Values Map (BV Map) identifies land with high biodiversity value that is particularly sensitive to impacts from development and clearing:
  • Biodiversity Values Map and Threshold Tool
  • Biodiversity Values Map website

• Sea level rise assumptions – Read about sea level rise and learn about impacts on flooding, coastal inundation, and estuaries and impacts from climate change.

Regional and district land use assumptions and housing targets

• Regional Planning NSW – Provides all approved regional plans

Transport, freight, workforce and employment projections

• Metropolitan Transport Demand – passengers

• Freight:
  • Freight and Port Plan (FPP) released September 2018
  • Freight Performance Dashboard
  • Strategic Freight Forecasts

• Small area projections for Population, Workforce and Employment – TZP22 on the Open Data Hub (to download the data sets)

• Workspace Ratios – Guidance on workspace ratios to assist in determining how many potential jobs could result from new employment related development

• Employment projections summary – Explanation of the employment projections

New infrastructure in planning or development phase

• Projects and initiatives map – Interactive all new funded and committed transport infrastructure projects train, bus, light rail, freight, interchanges, parking, roads and maritime and walking/cycling paths across NSW

• NSW School infrastructure projects map – Interactive map of all school infrastructure projects in NSW completed since 2011, in progress and recently announced (shown by project type and status)

• Health infrastructure projects – Interactive map showing Health Infrastructure projects (e.g. hospitals) in all parts of the State by planning, delivery and completion stages

NSW Digital Connectivity Index

• The NSW Connectivity Index is an interactive visualisation tool that measures the quality of digital connectivity across NSW through three key elements: access, affordability and demographics