NSW Common Planning Assumptions

NSW Common Planning Assumptions are the agreed information assets (data sets, parametres and assumptions, models and analytical tools) used by NSW Government and external stakeholders, to prepare proposals, business plans and strategies that rely on projections.

They provide a consistent evidence base for NSW Government agencies to use in planning for key services and infrastructure in the state, from schools and hospitals to roads and transport.

The use of common planning assumptions supports the Premier’s Priority for world class public service by giving NSW Government agencies easier access to the latest datasets and assumptions for planning well-targeted services and infrastructure in NSW.

Assumptions and datasets

NSW Government agencies develop and update information assets that are used as common planning assumptions. The common planning assumptions detailed below were approved by CPAG in April 2021.

Common planning assumption datasets, reports and other tools, are provided below, broken into the following categories:

The Common Planning Assumptions are used in the development of new NSW government policies, strategies and business cases. They have been used to prepare key Government plans, including:

• Future Transport Strategy
• State Infrastructure Strategy 2018 - 2038
• Greater Sydney Region Plan and District Plans.

The planning horizon for these data sets and projections is typically between 20 years (business cases for investment above $10 million) and 40 years (proposals for major investments and strategies).

Fiscal and economic data

• 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report

Population and housing projection

• Population projections – Projections of population, mortality, migration, fertility and household formation

• Greater Sydney housing supply forecast, November 2020 – Provides information on where, when, and how many new homes are likely to be built within the city

Climate and natural resources

• Climate change projections interactive map – Displays NSW climate projections for NSW & ACT and provides the average result of 12 climate models for 2020-30 and 2060-79

• Climate change snapshots – Summary of climate change projections for NSW & ACT and it outlines some key characteristics of the region

• NSW and ACT Regional Climate Model (NARCliM) data – Registered users of the Climate Data Portal are able to view different datasets and data for particular locations and date ranges:
  • Data for download
  • Guidance

• NARCliM Climatological Atlas – A technical report with NARCliM (New South Wales / Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling) project outputs 

• Technical report on extreme rainfall – Presents extreme precipitation indices, their biases, and projected future changes for the state of New South Wales (NSW) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT)

• Technical report on bush fire risk – reviews the state of knowledge about how climate change will affect bushfire risk in NSW

• Heatwaves snapshot – Illustrates the projected changes in mean number of heatwave days each year and number of days above 40°C across NSW by 2070

• Heatwaves Technical Report – Shows heatwaves affecting NSW and the ACT: recent trends, future projections and associated impacts on human health

• Air quality:
  • NSW air quality monitoring data
  • NSW air quality monitoring reports
  • NSW air emissions inventory results
  • Air emissions in my community web-tool
  • National Pollutant Inventory results

• The Biodiversity Values Map (BV Map) identifies land with high biodiversity value that is particularly sensitive to impacts from development and clearing:
  • Biodiversity Values Map and Threshold Tool
  • Biodiversity Values Map website

• Sea level rise assumptions – For management of current infrastructure, planning new infrastructure and future land use planning.

Regional and district land use assumptions and housing targets

• Regional Planning NSW – Provides all approved regional plans

Transport, freight, workforce and employment projections

• Metropolitan Transport Demand – passengers

• Freight:
  • Freight and Port Plan (FPP) released September 2018
  • Freight Performance Dashboard
  • Strategic Freight Forecasts

• Small area projections for Population, Workforce and Employment – TZP22 on the Open Data Hub (to download the data sets)

• Workspace Ratios – Guidance on workspace ratios to assist in determining how many potential jobs could result from new employment related development

• Employment projections summary – Explanation of the employment projections

New infrastructure in planning or development phase

• Projects and initiatives map – Interactive all new funded and committed transport infrastructure projects train, bus, light rail, freight, interchanges, parking, roads and maritime and walking/cycling paths across NSW

• NSW School infrastructure projects map – Interactive map of all school infrastructure projects in NSW completed since 2011, in progress and recently announced (shown by project type and status)

• Health infrastructure projects – Interactive map showing Health Infrastructure projects (e.g. hospitals) in all parts of the State by planning, delivery and completion stages

NSW Digital Connectivity Index

• The NSW Connectivity Index is an interactive visualisation tool that measures the quality of digital connectivity across NSW through three key elements: access, affordability and demographics