Documents Library

TRP23-26 The Structural Budget Balance of New South Wales

This paper explores using the NSW Treasury Intergenerational Report (TIGR) model to estimate the NSW structural budget balance.

TRP23-07 Trends in productivity: What should we expect?

This paper tests whether an additive growth model explains productivity growth better than the exponential growth model typically used and explores some of the implications of using an additive model.

TRP22-19 Women’s economic opportunities in the NSW labour market and the impact of early childhood education and care

This paper sets out technical research and modelling improvements undertaken by NSW Treasury subsequent to the publication of the 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report(IGR) as part of the Women’s Economic Opportunities Review.

TTRP21-07 The sensitivity of the NSW economic and fiscal outlook to global coal demand and the broader energy transition for the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report

Coal mining is a major industry in New South Wales and a significant revenue source for the NSW Government. Most coal produced in New South Wales is exported and therefore the future of the industry is largely dependent on global demand.

In 2020, New South Wales’ three top thermal coal export markets – Japan, South Korea and China – all announced their intention to achieve net zero emissions by the middle of the century. Consequently, global demand and thus coal production is now projected to be significantly weaker than the long-term estimates presented in the 2016 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR).

TTRP21-06 Secular Stagnation, the Long-Term Real Bond Rate Outlook and Policy Issues for NSW and Australia

This paper is offered as part of a series of technical research papers that unpack the key drivers of long-term economic growth and the fiscal outlook in the lead up to the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR).

TTRP21-05 An Indicative Assessment of Four Key Areas of Climate Risk for the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report

Climate risks are expected to materially impact NSW’s long term economic and fiscal outlook. International financial institutions, including credit ratings agencies Moody’s and S&P Global, and central banks through the Network for Greening the Financial System, are increasingly considering climate risks as part of their long-term risk assessments.

Understanding the potential scale and direction of these impacts will improve the quality of estimates for the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR) and contribute to prudent and transparent fiscal management.

TTRP21-04 Sensitivity Analysis on Sydney's Urban Structure and House Prices for the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report

This paper discusses two hypothetical scenarios to the Sydney housing market and total welfare.

The preliminary model outputs will be finalised and presented as part of the next NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR), to be released in 2021, and will support a broader discussion on the importance of effective planning regulations to sustainable growth. It will also provide the opportunity to explore some potential structural shifts resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and associated government and business responses.

TTRP21-02 Projecting Long Run Productivity Growth Rates for the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report

This paper evaluates the appropriateness of the current long run labour productivity growth assumption ahead of the next NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR), to be released in 2021. It examines methodologies used by other leading Treasuries and financial institutions for projecting productivity growth, and reviews trends and factors that may influence the future growth path. The proposed methodology and projections contained in this paper are preliminary and will be finalised for the 2021 IGR.

TTRP21-03 Ageing and health expenses in New South Wales – revisiting the long-term modelling approach

The 2016 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR) projected health expenses to be the largest driver of long-run expense growth for NSW. It projected health expenses to grow from 28 per cent of total expenses by 2056 to 36 per cent - at a long-term annual growth rate of 6.0 per cent - in the absence of policy intervention.

This reflects the pressures of an ageing population, and non-demographic factors such as advancements in health technology and expectations for more and improved health services over the next 40 years.

TTRP21-01 Preliminary Fertility Rate Projections for the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report

This paper sets out reasons why the NSW long-run fertility rate is projected to decline from its 2019-20 level of 1.67 babies per woman to 1.63 by 2032. The paper recommends that the 2021 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR) utilise a constant long-run TFR assumption of 1.63 from 2032